The State of Water in Texas: What Central Texans Need to Know About the Rising Demand and Shrinking Supply

Why Water Matters More Than Ever

In Texas, water has always been an essential but limited resource. Today, with record-setting population growth and sustained drought conditions, it’s becoming one of the most important conversations shaping the future of our communities.

From Austin to San Antonio and stretching across the Hill Country and beyond, water availability is influencing everything—from how cities plan new developments to how much it costs to keep a business running.

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) projects the state’s population will nearly double—from about 30 million today to more than 50 million by 2070. Over that same period, total statewide water demand is expected to rise roughly 9%, while water supply could drop by nearly 20% due to aquifer depletion, droughts, and aging infrastructure.

That math doesn’t add up—and it’s why understanding where our water comes from and how it’s managed is becoming essential for homeowners and business owners alike.

How Texas’ Water Flows

To understand the challenge, it helps to see how Texas water moves.

The state’s supply comes from two main sources:

• Surface water – rivers, lakes, and reservoirs that can be managed through dams and treatment plants.
• Groundwater – underground aquifers that recharge slowly and are tapped by wells for cities, farms, and rural areas.

In Central Texas, much of our water originates from the Colorado River Basin, flowing from West Texas through the Highland Lakes and into the Austin metro. These reservoirs—like Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan—serve as lifelines for communities, agriculture, and local ecosystems.

But because rainfall is irregular and aquifer recharge takes decades, these sources don’t replenish fast enough to match population growth. When you add rising temperatures and more frequent drought cycles, the balance between inflow and outflow starts to tip in the wrong direction.

The Supply vs. Demand Gap

Here’s the growing divide:

• Supply is projected to fall from roughly 16.7 million acre-feet of water in 2020 to about 13.8 million by 2070.
• Demand is expected to climb from 17.7 million acre-feet to more than 19 million acre-feet in the same period.
• Groundwater—which supports large parts of rural and suburban Central Texas—is forecast to decline by over 30%, according to TWDB data.

The result is a widening gap that will require new reservoirs, expanded reuse systems, desalination technology, and stricter conservation to close.

What This Means for Central Texas Growth

Few regions highlight this challenge more clearly than the Austin metropolitan area, one of the fastest-growing in the nation.

Communities like Manor, Bastrop, Pflugerville, and Hutto are expanding quickly as families and businesses seek more affordable land just outside the city core. That growth is bringing opportunity—but also new pressure on infrastructure.

For Homeowners

• Water reliability affects property value. Areas with limited or uncertain supply could see slower appreciation or higher maintenance costs over time.
• New homes may face stricter efficiency standards. Builders are beginning to design with low-flow systems, native landscaping, and rainwater collection to meet conservation targets.
• HOA and municipal rates may rise. As utilities invest in upgrading systems or securing new supply sources, homeowners could see rate adjustments or new service fees.

For Business Owners

• Operational costs could increase. Whether you’re running a restaurant, office park, or manufacturing facility, water costs and potential restrictions can impact your bottom line.
• Future growth depends on infrastructure. Cities may delay or deny permits for projects if water availability doesn’t align with capacity plans.
• Location matters more than ever. Access to reliable water service is quickly becoming as critical as proximity to highways or fiber networks for long-term business planning.

Key Trends to Watch

1. Municipal Demand is Outpacing Agriculture

Historically, most Texas water went toward irrigation. Today, cities are catching up. Municipal and industrial uses are expected to surpass agriculture as the state’s top demand source by mid-century—a direct result of population growth and urbanization.

2. Groundwater is Under Stress

Aquifers like the Edwards, Trinity, and Carrizo-Wilcox are declining faster than they can recharge. In parts of Central Texas, groundwater levels have dropped dozens of feet in just a few decades, leading to stricter pumping limits and new conservation districts.

3. Conservation and Innovation Will Define the Next Era

Cities like Austin and San Antonio are already ahead of the curve with water reuse programs, smart irrigation systems, and tiered pricing that rewards conservation. Developers are also investing in graywater systems, stormwater capture, and native xeriscaping to reduce dependence on centralized supply.

What Homeowners and Business Owners Should Ask

Before purchasing, investing, or expanding in Central Texas, it’s worth asking a few questions:

1. Where does this property’s water come from—municipal system, river, or well?
2. Is the utility part of a long-term water plan (like those approved by the TWDB)?
3. Are there any rate increases, drought restrictions, or capacity limits in effect?
4. How does the community handle water reuse, conservation, or stormwater runoff?
5. For businesses: are there incentives or programs to offset water-efficiency upgrades?

Having this knowledge upfront helps you plan for stability—and can be a selling point when it’s time to list or lease.

The Bigger Picture: Water as a Strategic Asset

Across Central Texas, growth is inevitable—but sustainable growth depends on water. Communities that invest now in resilient infrastructure and conservation will remain attractive and competitive in the decades ahead.

For homeowners and business owners, awareness is power. Understanding how water supply and demand shape your property’s value, your city’s growth, and your everyday costs will help you make informed, future-focused decisions.

In Summary:

• Texas’ population could double by 2070, but water supply may drop nearly 20%.
• Central Texas’ reservoirs and aquifers face mounting strain.
• Homeowners should monitor costs, conservation rules, and infrastructure plans.
• Business owners need to consider water access and capacity in site selection.
• Long-term success depends on balancing growth with sustainability.

Call to Action:
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📍 Brandon Flowers, REALTOR® | Teifke Real Estate

BrandonFlowersRealtor@gmail.com
www.brandonflowers.realtor